Sunday, February 08, 2009
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
CNBC Portfolio Challenge First Day Rankings
Following the first day of trading results, the top player rankings for the 2008 CNBC Million Portfolio Challenge were first posted early Teusday evening.
Before I start bragging about my first day success, let me make a some observations that players should consider in the early going.
First the top player, had a first day gain of 15.5%. Assuming he had the total bonus points of $17,000.00, then his gain for the day was around 13.8%.
The numbers below assume full credit of bonus points:
The player ranked number six assuming full bonus credits, has a gain of 10.7%.
The player ranked number ten has a gain of 10.2%.
The player ranked number twenty five has a gain of 9.4%.
Now my first day success was a total return of 7.4% giving a rank of number 784 and a very comfortable positioning for the first day of trading.
Now with only 700 people ahead of me and no doubt half of them with similar portfolios in that list, cutting it down to maybe half of those, I could vault into the top rankings any day now assuming I stay positive and no mistakes.
At least its fun to have a shot at the first weeks prize just so long as its the Yankees that I will see at the World Series.
But I can have much more fun with the grand prize money.
We will see.
Before I start bragging about my first day success, let me make a some observations that players should consider in the early going.
First the top player, had a first day gain of 15.5%. Assuming he had the total bonus points of $17,000.00, then his gain for the day was around 13.8%.
The numbers below assume full credit of bonus points:
The player ranked number six assuming full bonus credits, has a gain of 10.7%.
The player ranked number ten has a gain of 10.2%.
The player ranked number twenty five has a gain of 9.4%.
Now my first day success was a total return of 7.4% giving a rank of number 784 and a very comfortable positioning for the first day of trading.
Now with only 700 people ahead of me and no doubt half of them with similar portfolios in that list, cutting it down to maybe half of those, I could vault into the top rankings any day now assuming I stay positive and no mistakes.
At least its fun to have a shot at the first weeks prize just so long as its the Yankees that I will see at the World Series.
But I can have much more fun with the grand prize money.
We will see.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
2008 CNBC contest begins with challenges
The 2008 CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge was open for trading yesterday and unlike last year, I hope to pay more attention considering the fact that I ranked in the top 2% (see April 2007 post)for much of the early going but I was distracted with other items near the end of the contest. However, just like last year's contest there were similar issues that can ignite the same kind of controversy that helped some of last year's winners.
First and most important, there were a few contestants in the leaders list with more than one portfolio which is contrary to the new rules suggesting that only one player per account can win and participate. It will be interesting to see how the leaderboard evolves here in the first few days.
The contest's administrators also decided to cancel all currency trading on the first day probably due to system overloads and players' inabilities to seamlessly log-in and execute trades for most of the trading day yesterday. I was not happy with that late development because I had a few profitable currency trades in the first couple of hours and I couldnt close some of them in a timely manner to capitalize on a great first day of trading. The currency trading portion of the contest will be very interesting since this adds a 24 hour, Monday through Friday, trading window that will make it harder for most participants to have an edge unless they have no other commitments and do not require sleep in their daily existance.
I will update this blog daily and give readers some help along the way, so in case you win from any of the picks and screens highlighted here, feel free to give me a plug!
First and most important, there were a few contestants in the leaders list with more than one portfolio which is contrary to the new rules suggesting that only one player per account can win and participate. It will be interesting to see how the leaderboard evolves here in the first few days.
The contest's administrators also decided to cancel all currency trading on the first day probably due to system overloads and players' inabilities to seamlessly log-in and execute trades for most of the trading day yesterday. I was not happy with that late development because I had a few profitable currency trades in the first couple of hours and I couldnt close some of them in a timely manner to capitalize on a great first day of trading. The currency trading portion of the contest will be very interesting since this adds a 24 hour, Monday through Friday, trading window that will make it harder for most participants to have an edge unless they have no other commitments and do not require sleep in their daily existance.
I will update this blog daily and give readers some help along the way, so in case you win from any of the picks and screens highlighted here, feel free to give me a plug!
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Looking for Clean & Green? Waste Management picks up, delivers and recycles
If anyone were to ask me what company represents the fight for a greener planet, I would have to say Waste Management Inc., (WMI-NYSE), trading just below $40 per share. Since 1894 this company has been taking out the trash and have now built a respectable portfolio of solutions to profit from waste-to-energy implementation and recycling forethought.
I also have to admire any company who engages in a business that inherently gets the "dirty business" label yet takes on the challenge and corporate bravado to actively clean up the waste of the world. Considering the fact that environmental awareness, regulations and scrutiny are increasingly dominating today's headlines, I like the company's long term prospects. I like the name so much, I vote for a government department called the Waste Management Agency, whereby Uncle Sam could be his own best customer.
How green is Waste Management?
Taken from the company's Website they boast:
413 collection operations, 370 transfer stations, 283 active landfill disposal sites, 17 waste-to-energy plants, 131 recycling plants, 95 beneficial-use landfill gas projects and 6 independent power production plants. These assets enable Waste Management to offer a full range of environmental services to nearly 21 million residential, industrial, municipal and commercial customers.
We recover and process methane gas, naturally produced in landfills, into an energy source for generating power. We currently supply enough landfill gas to create more than 250 megawatts of green energy that could power about 225,000 homes or replace about 2 million barrels of oil per year.
With 495 vehicles now converted from diesel fuel to clean-burning natural gas, we operate one of the nation's largest fleets of heavy-duty trucks powered exclusively by natural gas.
We have taken a leadership role in promoting the recycling and reuse of materials that would
otherwise end up in landfills. Waste Management, combined with its wholly owned subsidiary WM Recycle America, is North America’s largest recycler. We process 5.8 million tons of commodities each year, saving approximately 41 million trees through paper recycling alone.
Through its waste-to-energy plants, WM uses solid municipal waste to generate power. This reduces the volume of the waste by 90 percent and saves space in local landfills while providing an economical alternative to the use of fossil and nuclear fuels.
WM partners with communities, government and industries to redevelop closed landfill sites into recreational and commercial facilities such as parks, athletic fields, campgrounds and golf courses.
Across North America, we work with environmental groups to set aside land to create and manage wetlands and wildlife habitats. Our landfills provide more than 16,000 acres of protected land for wildlife; 15 landfills are certified by the Wildlife Habitat Council.
WM helped found the Chicago Climate Exchange, an organization established to provide a voluntary marketplace for reducing and trading greenhouse gas emissions.
http://www.wastemanagement.com/wm/about/Overview.asp
The stock suffered dearly following an accounting scandal and management shakeup in the summer of 1999, but has since recovered to a solid track record of growth and shareholder value. The chart below represents a comparison of stock performance to the S&P 500. WMI in Magneta, S&P500 in green.
I do not believe this is the best price to execute entries into the stock based on the chart analysis below and an uneasy feeling that stock prices are due for a breather, but over the course of the next couple of months any pullbacks will offer a chance to get in for the long term (1-3 years) where I can see this stock north of $50 per share.
For track record purposes, the recent breakout from the previous 52 week range enables me to initiate a position here for a long term buy and hold call.
For now the company pays an investor a 2.50% annual yield in dividends and trades at a discount to it's industry peers. So for investors looking to "clean up", Waste Management makes it their business.
I also have to admire any company who engages in a business that inherently gets the "dirty business" label yet takes on the challenge and corporate bravado to actively clean up the waste of the world. Considering the fact that environmental awareness, regulations and scrutiny are increasingly dominating today's headlines, I like the company's long term prospects. I like the name so much, I vote for a government department called the Waste Management Agency, whereby Uncle Sam could be his own best customer.
How green is Waste Management?
Taken from the company's Website they boast:
413 collection operations, 370 transfer stations, 283 active landfill disposal sites, 17 waste-to-energy plants, 131 recycling plants, 95 beneficial-use landfill gas projects and 6 independent power production plants. These assets enable Waste Management to offer a full range of environmental services to nearly 21 million residential, industrial, municipal and commercial customers.
We recover and process methane gas, naturally produced in landfills, into an energy source for generating power. We currently supply enough landfill gas to create more than 250 megawatts of green energy that could power about 225,000 homes or replace about 2 million barrels of oil per year.
With 495 vehicles now converted from diesel fuel to clean-burning natural gas, we operate one of the nation's largest fleets of heavy-duty trucks powered exclusively by natural gas.
We have taken a leadership role in promoting the recycling and reuse of materials that would
otherwise end up in landfills. Waste Management, combined with its wholly owned subsidiary WM Recycle America, is North America’s largest recycler. We process 5.8 million tons of commodities each year, saving approximately 41 million trees through paper recycling alone.
Through its waste-to-energy plants, WM uses solid municipal waste to generate power. This reduces the volume of the waste by 90 percent and saves space in local landfills while providing an economical alternative to the use of fossil and nuclear fuels.
WM partners with communities, government and industries to redevelop closed landfill sites into recreational and commercial facilities such as parks, athletic fields, campgrounds and golf courses.
Across North America, we work with environmental groups to set aside land to create and manage wetlands and wildlife habitats. Our landfills provide more than 16,000 acres of protected land for wildlife; 15 landfills are certified by the Wildlife Habitat Council.
WM helped found the Chicago Climate Exchange, an organization established to provide a voluntary marketplace for reducing and trading greenhouse gas emissions.
http://www.wastemanagement.com/wm/about/Overview.asp
The stock suffered dearly following an accounting scandal and management shakeup in the summer of 1999, but has since recovered to a solid track record of growth and shareholder value. The chart below represents a comparison of stock performance to the S&P 500. WMI in Magneta, S&P500 in green.
I do not believe this is the best price to execute entries into the stock based on the chart analysis below and an uneasy feeling that stock prices are due for a breather, but over the course of the next couple of months any pullbacks will offer a chance to get in for the long term (1-3 years) where I can see this stock north of $50 per share.
For track record purposes, the recent breakout from the previous 52 week range enables me to initiate a position here for a long term buy and hold call.
For now the company pays an investor a 2.50% annual yield in dividends and trades at a discount to it's industry peers. So for investors looking to "clean up", Waste Management makes it their business.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Stock Market at a critical level for investors
Stock Market chart watchers should pay close attention to what the major averages do in the next couple of days, especially the big daddy Dow Jones Industial Average.
If we pull back in the next couple of days then a classic double top would start to form on the daily chart which will probably lead to a second major pullback as we experienced in the end of February. Of course if we break out to new highs then that would be healthy so long as volume is strong, however already early into the first quarter earnings season, results are starting to disappoint.
I am using this opportunity the introduce the six major market average ETFs to my model portfolios. Details will follow in a later post today. For now, this may be a good time to take any near term profits and hold back to make new entries at lower prices.
I am executing long entries into 3 managed exchange traded funds that short the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.
DXD - Ultra Short Dow 30 Proshares, SDS - Ultra Short S&P 500 Proshares, and QID - Ultra Short Nasdaq 100 Proshares. These three funds are managed funds whose objective is to move at twice the rate of the underlying moving averages.
I am also executing short entries into the three regular exchange traded funds that represent the same underlying averages only the objective is to match the indexes at the same rate of return.
These are DIA - Diamond Trust Series representing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, SPY Spyder Dep Receipts which tracks the S&P 500 and QQQQ Powershares QQQ series trust which follows the Nasdaq 100 Index.
The objective is to get a gain over any near term (1-4 weeks) correction where we will close our shorts and buy into these same funds at lower prices.
Detailed posts will follow on each of these positions.
If we pull back in the next couple of days then a classic double top would start to form on the daily chart which will probably lead to a second major pullback as we experienced in the end of February. Of course if we break out to new highs then that would be healthy so long as volume is strong, however already early into the first quarter earnings season, results are starting to disappoint.
I am using this opportunity the introduce the six major market average ETFs to my model portfolios. Details will follow in a later post today. For now, this may be a good time to take any near term profits and hold back to make new entries at lower prices.
I am executing long entries into 3 managed exchange traded funds that short the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.
DXD - Ultra Short Dow 30 Proshares, SDS - Ultra Short S&P 500 Proshares, and QID - Ultra Short Nasdaq 100 Proshares. These three funds are managed funds whose objective is to move at twice the rate of the underlying moving averages.
I am also executing short entries into the three regular exchange traded funds that represent the same underlying averages only the objective is to match the indexes at the same rate of return.
These are DIA - Diamond Trust Series representing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, SPY Spyder Dep Receipts which tracks the S&P 500 and QQQQ Powershares QQQ series trust which follows the Nasdaq 100 Index.
The objective is to get a gain over any near term (1-4 weeks) correction where we will close our shorts and buy into these same funds at lower prices.
Detailed posts will follow on each of these positions.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
My first stock pick from 1989, CMVT - Comverse Technology "The Greatest Stock Story never told"
In my early days as a stockbroker, I worked for a small investment banking firm who participated in underwriting small speculative growth companies that mainly traded as pink sheet stocks. Nine out of ten comapnies in this arena never make it, but i was fortunate enough to embrace one that was my greatest lesson in what can happen if you buy a stock for the long term.
I also learned what can happen if you don't stay with your beliefs and bail on a stock too early resulting in years of kicking myself and muttering of what I should have, could have, would have done.
The company I am referring to is Comverse Technology. This company's storyline sounds like a trailer for the movie Gladiator where Commodus says to Maximus,
"The general who became a slave. The slave who became a gladiator. The gladiator who defied an emperor. Striking story!"
Comverse's storyline goes like this,
"The company who began as a penny stock. The penny stock that graduated to a Nasdaq listing. The Nasdaq stock who became an SP-500 component. The SP-500 component that fell from grace back to the pink sheets. Striking story!
Unless you were a shareholder these last few years.
Even more intriguing was last year's worldwide manhunt for Kobi Alexander, Comverse's CEO for many years, who stepped down last year as a result of an improper options back dating probe that began and is still ongoing.
Mr. Alexander made a lot of money for shareholders but apparently "greed" took over and he probably made a fortune by backdating options at low prices illegally. This was so unnecessary since he was doing what we as average investors expect a chief executive to do and that is increase shareholder value. For this he should be remembered as the model for success building a company from obscurity to an institutional darling, but for some reason he chose the path to riches by cheating rather than staying the course and continuing to build a telecom technology powerhouse.
I was buying this stock for clients at $.18c per share in the latter part of 1989. Yes, i was recommending a speculative penny stock in my early days while building a client base. Why? Because the company at the time represented what every investor looks for when they research a company before investing in it. The company was on the technological forefront developing telecommunication systems that provided messaging services and voicemail solutions. They were signing up customers left and right and these were major telephone giants throughout the world. Their telecom systems were purchased by governments. The company was building a foundation for remarkable growth. Growth that took this stock from $.18c a share to north of $100 per share over a 10 year time frame.
After a short time, I moved from the penny stock firm to Lehman Brothers and began buying stocks that were more mainstream and were household names for the average investor. I unfortunately stopped buying Comverse, and in fact sold what I had for clients in early 1991 and what a mistake that was. If I had held the shares for my first few clients in the early days, I would have been a multi millionaire by now with probably the greatest stock story anybody could tell. But I bailed early and watched the company woo Wall St. and begin it's meteoric ride to SP-500 status. What a lesson, the $100 million dollar lesson considering how much stock I had for clients ($10,000 turned into $8 million in about 10 years). But a lesson I hope all my readers will learn about long term investing.
Today the stock trades on the pink sheets at around $22 per share and Wall St. is buzzing about a possible breakup of the company's divisions which analysts say is the best strategy that will represent good value to investors. Whatever the end result will be, I am adding Comverse to my speculative list with the hopes that the company can put the past behind and move forward at doing what they do best, providing integrated software, systems, and related services for multimedia communication and information processing applications.
Last week Comverse Technology named a new chief executive. Former AT&T Wireless executive Andre Dahan who agreed to take the CEO job on April 30. Could this be the beginning of a new era for Comverse? Time will tell, but considering my history with the company, I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt. Stay subscribed for my entry calls on this stock.
I also learned what can happen if you don't stay with your beliefs and bail on a stock too early resulting in years of kicking myself and muttering of what I should have, could have, would have done.
The company I am referring to is Comverse Technology. This company's storyline sounds like a trailer for the movie Gladiator where Commodus says to Maximus,
"The general who became a slave. The slave who became a gladiator. The gladiator who defied an emperor. Striking story!"
Comverse's storyline goes like this,
"The company who began as a penny stock. The penny stock that graduated to a Nasdaq listing. The Nasdaq stock who became an SP-500 component. The SP-500 component that fell from grace back to the pink sheets. Striking story!
Unless you were a shareholder these last few years.
Even more intriguing was last year's worldwide manhunt for Kobi Alexander, Comverse's CEO for many years, who stepped down last year as a result of an improper options back dating probe that began and is still ongoing.
Mr. Alexander made a lot of money for shareholders but apparently "greed" took over and he probably made a fortune by backdating options at low prices illegally. This was so unnecessary since he was doing what we as average investors expect a chief executive to do and that is increase shareholder value. For this he should be remembered as the model for success building a company from obscurity to an institutional darling, but for some reason he chose the path to riches by cheating rather than staying the course and continuing to build a telecom technology powerhouse.
I was buying this stock for clients at $.18c per share in the latter part of 1989. Yes, i was recommending a speculative penny stock in my early days while building a client base. Why? Because the company at the time represented what every investor looks for when they research a company before investing in it. The company was on the technological forefront developing telecommunication systems that provided messaging services and voicemail solutions. They were signing up customers left and right and these were major telephone giants throughout the world. Their telecom systems were purchased by governments. The company was building a foundation for remarkable growth. Growth that took this stock from $.18c a share to north of $100 per share over a 10 year time frame.
After a short time, I moved from the penny stock firm to Lehman Brothers and began buying stocks that were more mainstream and were household names for the average investor. I unfortunately stopped buying Comverse, and in fact sold what I had for clients in early 1991 and what a mistake that was. If I had held the shares for my first few clients in the early days, I would have been a multi millionaire by now with probably the greatest stock story anybody could tell. But I bailed early and watched the company woo Wall St. and begin it's meteoric ride to SP-500 status. What a lesson, the $100 million dollar lesson considering how much stock I had for clients ($10,000 turned into $8 million in about 10 years). But a lesson I hope all my readers will learn about long term investing.
Today the stock trades on the pink sheets at around $22 per share and Wall St. is buzzing about a possible breakup of the company's divisions which analysts say is the best strategy that will represent good value to investors. Whatever the end result will be, I am adding Comverse to my speculative list with the hopes that the company can put the past behind and move forward at doing what they do best, providing integrated software, systems, and related services for multimedia communication and information processing applications.
Last week Comverse Technology named a new chief executive. Former AT&T Wireless executive Andre Dahan who agreed to take the CEO job on April 30. Could this be the beginning of a new era for Comverse? Time will tell, but considering my history with the company, I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt. Stay subscribed for my entry calls on this stock.
SMI initiates coverage on UTH - Utilities Holdrs
Investors in search of a safe place to park money for the long term should consider adding to their portfolios UTH, Utilities Holdrs, a diversified mix of utility stocks.
While there are many individual stocks that offer long term growth and solid dividend returns, this basket instrument helps to take the guess work out of deciding which stock in this sector is best. Most recently this sector has been bucking the downtrend in the markets since the start of the year. The chart below displays the outperformance of the Utilities versus the Dow and S&P.
Institutions looking for some safe havens having been moving into this sector for many reasons.
The recent prospects of private equity buyouts and consolidation in the sector along with lower interest rates boosts the near term performance potential for both long term investors and short term market timers.
Analyst Thomas Chenoweth will be adding UTH to his Top Pick portfolios on any near term weakness so stay subscribed for this market call.
While there are many individual stocks that offer long term growth and solid dividend returns, this basket instrument helps to take the guess work out of deciding which stock in this sector is best. Most recently this sector has been bucking the downtrend in the markets since the start of the year. The chart below displays the outperformance of the Utilities versus the Dow and S&P.
Institutions looking for some safe havens having been moving into this sector for many reasons.
The recent prospects of private equity buyouts and consolidation in the sector along with lower interest rates boosts the near term performance potential for both long term investors and short term market timers.
Analyst Thomas Chenoweth will be adding UTH to his Top Pick portfolios on any near term weakness so stay subscribed for this market call.
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